Start with the work attributed to you
If you enter nominal connected hashrate, adjust for the online time and hashrate allocation you intend to model. SoloMining's published platform allocation is 1%. If your input already describes effective user-assigned work, do not subtract the same fee or downtime again. A nameplate or brief peak reading is not necessarily a steady operating rate.
- Use a hashrate and unit you can explain.
- Choose nominal or already-effective input deliberately.
- Do not convert a raw rejection percentage into lost hashrate without understanding the reasons and measurement basis.
Difficulty remains fixed inside each scenario
The model holds the displayed or manually entered difficulty constant for each time horizon. Bitcoin difficulty can change, so a year-long result is a scenario under today's assumptions rather than a prediction. Check the timestamp and source mode. Manual values are useful for comparison but should never be labeled as a freshly measured network value.
- Refresh or replace stale inputs before relying on a result.
- Compare scenarios when difficulty or your online time changes.
- Use the same assumptions when comparing two devices.
Check the original guidance: Bitcoin Developer Guide
Read the chance of no block alongside the chance of a block
Under a fixed-difficulty Poisson approximation, λ = effective hashes per second × time in seconds ÷ (difficulty × 2³²). The probability of no block is P(0) = e^−λ; the probability of at least one is P(≥1) = 1 − e^−λ. When λ is small, P(0) stays close to 100% while P(≥1) stays small; at zero effective work, λ = 0 and no block has probability 100%. The calculator labels extremely small nonzero chances below its display threshold rather than promising a result.
- A longer horizon does not create a deadline.
- Expected blocks are not a promised number of discoveries.
- Accumulated shares do not make a later hash more likely to cross the network target.
Decide whether the reward pattern suits you
This calculator does not estimate an equipment purchase's profitability, electricity bill, Bitcoin price, taxes or maintenance costs. If you need regular revenue, compare pooled payment models before choosing pure solo mining. If you choose to test solo, configure a device and verify accepted work rather than treating a calculated probability as proof of a working connection.
- Keep operating costs outside the block probability result.
- Read the actual pool's reward and fee policy.
- Revisit the decision when your equipment, costs or objectives change.
Which assumption is most likely to change for you?
For a home miner, online time and device stability may change. For a larger operator, allocation and operating constraints may matter more. Network difficulty affects both. Save the assumptions you used outside this tool and recalculate when they change, rather than interpreting a period with no block as a countdown.
Content updated: 3 October 2026 · Policy and sources checked: 6 September 2026
How to interpret your mining odds
Does an average waiting time tell me when I will find a block?
No. It describes an average across hypothetical runs with the same fixed assumptions. Actual results can arrive much earlier, much later or not within your chosen period. Read the chance of no block alongside the chance of at least one, and do not interpret past waiting as accumulated progress.
Why is effective-hashrate mode different?
An effective value already represents the work attributed to you after the adjustments included in that measurement. Applying those same adjustments again would understate the modeled rate. Nominal mode starts from connected device capacity and applies the selected online-time and allocation assumptions. Be clear about which measurement your input represents.
Can I calculate without a live difficulty connection?
You can use the explicitly labeled manual-scenario mode and enter a valid difficulty obtained from a source you trust. The result remains a manual scenario, not live network data. Check the date of the value yourself, and use the same value when comparing devices or allocation assumptions.
Will changing pools make the same effective hashrate luckier?
A service name does not change the network target for each valid hash. Fees, job validity, compatibility and reliable operation can affect the effective work available to you. Evaluate those operational differences directly. Do not use a pool's recent block announcements or your best-difficulty record as a guarantee of improved luck.
Is a small calculated probability a reason to increase spending?
The tool describes a probability under specified assumptions; it does not recommend buying hardware or increasing operating costs. Decide whether the possibility of no reward fits your budget and objectives. Users who need regular payments should understand pooled reward methods before configuring a pure solo connection.