Steady hashrate
Your selected hashrate remains steady for the full period.
Solo mining calculator
Bitcoin solo mining probability calculator.
Estimate the chance of finding at least one Bitcoin block under a simplified model. The result is an estimate, not a prediction or earnings promise.
Result
1-year chance of at least one block
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Enter a hashrate to compare 1-day, 1-week, 1-month, and 1-year probabilities.
- 1-day probability
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- 1-week probability
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- 1-month probability
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- Expected blocks in 1 year
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- Model
- Poisson process
- Difficulty snapshot
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Probability is not a schedule
A probability estimate does not guarantee a block within any period. Long runs with no block remain possible.
Assumptions
What this estimate assumes.
Fixed difficulty
Network difficulty remains equal to the displayed snapshot.
Independent hashes
Each hash attempt is independent under the Poisson model.
No operating model
Downtime, rejected work, fees, hardware failure, and fiat economics are excluded.
FAQ
Interpret the result carefully.
Why is my probability so small?
A single miner's hashrate can be a very small fraction of the work securing Bitcoin, so short-horizon block probability may be extremely low.
Does adding time guarantee a block?
No. A longer time horizon increases the modeled probability while assumptions remain constant, but it never creates a deadline.
Is this a profitability calculator?
No. It estimates block probability. It does not model electricity, hardware cost, fees, Bitcoin price, downtime, or tax.
What happens when difficulty changes?
The estimate changes. Recalculate with a fresh timestamped difficulty value and treat older results as historical snapshots.