The path of one mining attempt
- The ASIC builds and hashes candidate block headers.
- A hash below the pool's share target can be recorded as a share.
- A hash below the Bitcoin network target is a valid block candidate.
- The pool backend reports the telemetry it has received.
A share is not a partial block
A pool sets an easier share target so it can measure submitted work without waiting for a network block. Network difficulty describes the much harder target a hash must meet to be a valid Bitcoin block candidate. An accepted share is useful operating evidence, but it is not a partial block or accumulated progress. Ten accepted shares do not make the next hash more likely to meet the network target.
Why variance dominates
Mining outcomes vary because each hash is an independent attempt. Two miners with the same steady hashrate can have very different results over the same period. An expected interval is a long-run average, not a schedule or a countdown; previous shares and lucky or unlucky periods do not change the next attempt.
The probability calculatorestimates the chance of at least one block for a chosen hashrate and period using a timestamped network-difficulty snapshot. Its assumptions do not turn an estimate into a prediction.
Solo mining and proportional pool mining
| Question | Solo model | Proportional pool model |
|---|---|---|
| Payout pattern | Rare and large if the user's hashrate finds a valid block; no reward percentage is deducted | Smaller and more regular, subject to the payout method |
| Variance | Very high | Lower for an individual participant |
| Role of shares | Measures work under the service policy | Often contributes to payout accounting |
What the dashboard can tell you
The dashboard can display available hashrate, shares, workers, difficulty, and timestamps. It cannot tell you when the next block will be found.