Probability

Bitcoin Solo Mining Probability Calculator

Enter your solo mining hashrate to evaluate the chance of solving a full Bitcoin block within key timeframes.

Hashrate

Network Snapshot

Current Difficulty: 148258433855481.312500
Estimated Network Hashrate: 1061.275208 EH/s

Probability Overview

1 DayChance
0.001628%
Expected blocks: 0.000016
1 Month (30 days)Chance
0.048835%
Expected blocks: 0.000488
1 Year (365 days)Chance
0.592541%
Expected blocks: 0.005943

How The Model Works

We model block discovery as a Poisson process with a constant network difficulty. Your worker contributes hashes independently, so the expected blocks found over any timeframe are proportional to your total submitted work.

1. Estimated network hashrate

H_network = difficulty * 2^32 / 600

2. Work produced by your miner

Work = H_worker * timeframe_seconds

3. Expected blocks in the window

lambda = Work / (difficulty * 2^32)

4. Probability of at least 1 block

P = 1 - e^(−lambda)

These projections assume steady hashrate, no downtime, and no changes to Bitcoin difficulty within the chosen timeframe.